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08.06.2026|New HWWI-forecast

The Iran conflict and lack of reform are slowing down the German economy

After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy... Read more

After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now lasting longer than initially expected. The erratic US tariff policy is also noticeably dampening German export activities. However, the mood in the economy has also been affected by home-grown problems, especially because the reform process is progressing slowly and has been overshadowed by disagreements within the coalition government.

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01.06.2026|New Publication

The stock market effects of Islamist versus non-Islamist terror

Do ideological differences underlying terrorist attacks influence financial market outcomes? Do investors react differently to terrorist attacks depending on their ideological motivations, and if so, what explains these variations? In this paper we examine the impact of terrorism on stock markets through the lens of... Read more

Do ideological differences underlying terrorist attacks influence financial market outcomes? Do investors react differently to terrorist attacks depending on their ideological motivations, and if so, what explains these variations? In this paper we examine the impact of terrorism on stock markets through the lens of terror ideology. Surprisingly, we find that Islamist terror attacks created significant negative abnormal returns in American and European markets, whereas the stock market effects of other terror attacks were almost nil.

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24.04.2026|News from the Institute

FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards

We are delighted to announce some exciting news: Our colleague Jörg Hinze has recently been recognized as Germany’s third-best economist in the field of economic forecasting. The “FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards” are annual awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for key macroeconomic indicators... Read more

We are delighted to announce some exciting news: Our colleague Jörg Hinze has recently been recognized as Germany’s third-best economist in the field of economic forecasting. The “FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards” are annual awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for key macroeconomic indicators (GDP, budget balance, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, unemployment rates, and current account balances) in more than 100 countries, as well as for 27 commodities.

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09.04.2026|new publication

Spatial dynamics of real estate prices: Socio-economic and pandemic effects in German Regions

How do exceptional crises correlate with property price developments? This study analyzes all German NUTS-3 regions from 2012 to 2022 using spatial econometric models. The results show: COVID-19 indicators like infection rates or mobility restrictions correlate significantly with local price dynamics – coinciding with indirect... Read more

How do exceptional crises correlate with property price developments? This study analyzes all German NUTS-3 regions from 2012 to 2022 using spatial econometric models. The results show: COVID-19 indicators like infection rates or mobility restrictions correlate significantly with local price dynamics – coinciding with indirect spillover effects on neighboring regions. The study highlights how closely these factors, alongside socioeconomic conditions like average age, are associated with local real estate markets.

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16.03.2026|New HWWI-Working Paper

Institutional Reform and Depositors’ Portfolio Choice. Evidence from Bank Account Data

How do political and economic systems shape people’s financial behavior over the long run? Using Germany’s division and reunification as a natural experiment, this working paper analyzes unique bank account data. The results reveal that even many years after reunification, investment choices in East and... Read more

How do political and economic systems shape people’s financial behavior over the long run? Using Germany’s division and reunification as a natural experiment, this working paper analyzes unique bank account data. The results reveal that even many years after reunification, investment choices in East and West Germany still differ—particularly regarding risky assets. The study highlights how historical experiences and institutional environments can leave lasting imprints on household financial decisions.

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11.03.2026|Neue Publikation

The tension between competition policy and industrial policy in the German defense industry

With the security policy “Zeitenwende” and rising defense spending, calls for industrial policy to strengthen the domestic arms industry are increasing, while the role of competition policy receives little attention. This article analyses the specific characteristics of arms markets and empirically examines competition intensity at... Read more

With the security policy “Zeitenwende” and rising defense spending, calls for industrial policy to strengthen the domestic arms industry are increasing, while the role of competition policy receives little attention. This article analyses the specific characteristics of arms markets and empirically examines competition intensity at national and European levels. It then discusses the tension between industrial and competition policy from a regulatory perspective and argues that strengthening defense capabilities should rely primarily on pro-competitive measures, including joint European procurement, open tendering, and lower market entry barriers.

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11.03.2026|New HWWI-Forecast

Iran war delays recovery of the German economy

The German economy had stabilised towards the end of last year; many economic indicators developed positively. The growth opportunities for 2026 and 2027 were assessed favourably due to the fiscal spending programmes and support measures launched by the coalition government. However, with the Iran war... Read more

The German economy had stabilised towards the end of last year; many economic indicators developed positively. The growth opportunities for 2026 and 2027 were assessed favourably due to the fiscal spending programmes and support measures launched by the coalition government. However, with the Iran war and the resulting price shocks for oil and gas, the prospects for inflation and growth - not only in Germany, but worldwide - have initially deteriorated.

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06.03.2026|New HWWI-Study

Simulation of the impact of US tariffs on Hamburg as a business location

The present HWWI study uses a CGE model to analyze the short-run effects of the current U.S. tariff regime (as of Fall/Winter 2025) on Hamburg. At the aggregate level, the impacts on GDP and employment in Germany, the EU, and Hamburg are close to zero,... Read more

The present HWWI study uses a CGE model to analyze the short-run effects of the current U.S. tariff regime (as of Fall/Winter 2025) on Hamburg. At the aggregate level, the impacts on GDP and employment in Germany, the EU, and Hamburg are close to zero, while the United States is likely to enter a stagflationary environment. Sectoral developments in Hamburg, however, depend on differing price effects induced by the U.S. tariff regime.

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