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02.09.2026|New HWWI-forecast

German Economy 2026/27: Signs of Recovery - but Reform Needs Remain

According to the latest figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy performed better in the first half of this year than geopolitical burdens and the negative mood in this country would have expected; the price- and seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.75% in this period and by 1.5% on an annual... Read more

According to the latest figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy performed better in the first half of this year than geopolitical burdens and the negative mood in this country would have expected; the price- and seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.75% in this period and by 1.5% on an annual basis. At the same time, important reform projects – such as the health care reform (in force), a pension reform and a tax reform (both as a draft) – were launched. In addition, several economic and climate indicators have improved; however, the positive change in sentiment expressed here is not always reflected in public opinion. Apart from this, the continued weakness in private investment activity illustrates the continuing need for structural reforms.
German Economy 2026/27: Signs of Recovery - but Reform Needs Remain
HWWI - Summer Reception 2026
01.09.2026|News from HWWI

HWWI - Summer Reception 2026

On September 1st, we came together in the stylish ambience of the Grand Elysée Hamburg to celebrate our almost traditional HWWI summer party. With delicacies from the grill and refreshing drinks, we enjoyed the enriching exchange with our friends, sponsors, partners and companions from science,... Read more

On September 1st, we came together in the stylish ambience of the Grand Elysée Hamburg to celebrate our almost traditional HWWI summer party. With delicacies from the grill and refreshing drinks, we enjoyed the enriching exchange with our friends, sponsors, partners and companions from science, politics, business and society.
HWWI-Commodity Price Index remains volatile: US-Iran MoU provides only temporary relief
18.08.2026|HWWI-Commodity price index

HWWI-Commodity Price Index remains volatile: US-Iran MoU provides only temporary relief

In recent months, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index has shown strong volatility. In May, the total index recorded a further increase of 2.4 %. The following month brought temporary relief as the index fell noticeably by -9.2 % in June. Here, the negotiated US-Iran MoU is... Read more

In recent months, the HWWI-Commodity Price Index has shown strong volatility. In May, the total index recorded a further increase of 2.4 %. The following month brought temporary relief as the index fell noticeably by -9.2 % in June. Here, the negotiated US-Iran MoU is likely to have eased market tensions. However, this stabilization did not last: driven by the renewed resurgence of the conflict, prices picked up again by 2.2 % in July. Despite the intermittent fluctuations and the decline in the early summer, the markets reflect the ongoing geopolitical risks: in July, the overall HWWI-Commodity Price Index remained a significant 19.6 % higher than the corresponding figure for the previous year (as of August 17, 2026).
Energy Commodity Prices in the Context of the 2026 Middle East Conflict
11.08.2026|New Publication

Energy Commodity Prices in the Context of the 2026 Middle East Conflict

This article examines the development of energy commodity prices since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East in spring 2026. Crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as the HWWI Energy Price.

This article examines the development of energy commodity prices since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East in spring 2026. Crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as the HWWI Energy Price.
The Maritime Economy of the Weser-Ems Region
03.07.2026|New HWWI-Study

The Maritime Economy of the Weser-Ems Region

The Weser-Ems region is one of Germany’s most important maritime hubs. Key sectors include shipping companies, ports, shipbuilding, maritime services, offshore wind energy, and research and educational institutions. Because the maritime economy is statistically spread across various industries, its economic significance is often underestimated. In... Read more

The Weser-Ems region is one of Germany’s most important maritime hubs. Key sectors include shipping companies, ports, shipbuilding, maritime services, offshore wind energy, and research and educational institutions. Because the maritime economy is statistically spread across various industries, its economic significance is often underestimated. In fact, its influence extends far beyond the region and the sector, as it provides essential infrastructure and services for international trade. The study highlights this significance by analyzing extensive data from various sources.
The Iran conflict and lack of reform are slowing down the German economy
08.06.2026|New HWWI-forecast

The Iran conflict and lack of reform are slowing down the German economy

After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy... Read more

After a good start to this year for the German economy, the outlook for growth and inflation has deteriorated significantly since the end of February due to the Iran war, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated increase in energy prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now lasting longer than initially expected. The erratic US tariff policy is also noticeably dampening German export activities. However, the mood in the economy has also been affected by home-grown problems, especially because the reform process is progressing slowly and has been overshadowed by disagreements within the coalition government.
The stock market effects of Islamist versus non-Islamist terror
01.06.2026|New Publication

The stock market effects of Islamist versus non-Islamist terror

Do ideological differences underlying terrorist attacks influence financial market outcomes? Do investors react differently to terrorist attacks depending on their ideological motivations, and if so, what explains these variations? In this paper we examine the impact of terrorism on stock markets through the lens of... Read more

Do ideological differences underlying terrorist attacks influence financial market outcomes? Do investors react differently to terrorist attacks depending on their ideological motivations, and if so, what explains these variations? In this paper we examine the impact of terrorism on stock markets through the lens of terror ideology. Surprisingly, we find that Islamist terror attacks created significant negative abnormal returns in American and European markets, whereas the stock market effects of other terror attacks were almost nil.
New Colleague
01.05.2026|News from the Institute

New Colleague

We welcome Max Funke as a new research associate at our institute. He will be joining the “Energy and Commodities” research division effective immediately. Mr. Funke earned his bachelor’s degree in economics from Goethe University Frankfurt. He earned his master’s degree in International Economics and... Read more

We welcome Max Funke as a new research associate at our institute. He will be joining the “Energy and Commodities” research division effective immediately. Mr. Funke earned his bachelor’s degree in economics from Goethe University Frankfurt. He earned his master’s degree in International Economics and Governance from the University of Bayreuth and the University of Cantabria. We look forward to working with him and extend a warm welcome to him.  
FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards
24.04.2026|News from the Institute

FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards

We are delighted to announce some exciting news: Our colleague Jörg Hinze has recently been recognized as Germany’s third-best economist in the field of economic forecasting. The “FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards” are annual awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for key macroeconomic indicators... Read more

We are delighted to announce some exciting news: Our colleague Jörg Hinze has recently been recognized as Germany’s third-best economist in the field of economic forecasting. The “FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards” are annual awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for key macroeconomic indicators (GDP, budget balance, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, unemployment rates, and current account balances) in more than 100 countries, as well as for 27 commodities.  
Spatial dynamics of real estate prices: Socio-economic and pandemic effects in German Regions
09.04.2026|new publication

Spatial dynamics of real estate prices: Socio-economic and pandemic effects in German Regions

How do exceptional crises correlate with property price developments? This study analyzes all German NUTS-3 regions from 2012 to 2022 using spatial econometric models. The results show: COVID-19 indicators like infection rates or mobility restrictions correlate significantly with local price dynamics – coinciding with indirect... Read more

How do exceptional crises correlate with property price developments? This study analyzes all German NUTS-3 regions from 2012 to 2022 using spatial econometric models. The results show: COVID-19 indicators like infection rates or mobility restrictions correlate significantly with local price dynamics – coinciding with indirect spillover effects on neighboring regions. The study highlights how closely these factors, alongside socioeconomic conditions like average age, are associated with local real estate markets.
HWWI divider

On the HWWI

Hamburg World Economic Institute (HWWI) is an independent, privately financed economic research institute. In addition to the headquarters in Hamburg, the HWWI has a branch in Bremen. It is organized as a non-profit GmbH; the only shareholder is the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce. HWWI closely cooperates with Helmut Schmidt University/University of the Armed Forces Hamburg (HSU).